Seth’s Week 9 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

Seth’s Week 9 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

November 6, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

The only success of my Week 8 lineup was picking players that would get injured. Four of my players left with injuries, including major injuries for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Steve Smith Sr., and Ladarius Green.

My FanDuel results so far this season:

Week	# Contests Entered	Total Entry Fees	Total Prize Winnings	Net Gain/Loss for Week	Finals Tickets Won	Cumulative Profit	Cumulative Finals Tickets Won
1	5	$32	$327	$295	4	$295	4
2	9	$82	$0	($82)	0	$213	4
3	5	$45	$29	($16)	1	$197	5
4	5	$45	$0	($45)	0	$152	5
5	4	$40	$0	($40)	0	$112	5
6	4	$35	$70	$35	0	$147	5
7	4	$35	$0	($35)	0	$112	5
8	4	$35	$0	($35)	0	$77	5

Fantasy Points Allowed Medians

Fantasy owners like to use average points allowed vs. positions, and that’s not a bad strategy with the tools and information available at various sources. However, with a small sample size of weeks, just one game can heavily skew team averages. Just look at how much last week’s Saints/Giants 52-49 shootout could skew the defensive marks for those teams.

With that in mind, I’ve compiled the median FanDuel points allowed through eight weeks. It’s an interesting exercise to compare the median points allowed rankings to the average points allowed rankings.

Note: Rankings are 1-32, with #1 rank indicating most points allowed (worst defense).

Quarterback

Team	Median	Average
Baltimore Ravens	1	2
New Orleans Saints	2	1
Miami Dolphins	3	12
San Diego Chargers	4	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	3
Oakland Raiders	6	6
Houston Texans	7	9
Washington Redskins	8	18
Detroit Lions	9	4
Indianapolis Colts	10	13
Cleveland Browns	11	10
New England Patriots	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	13	17
Buffalo Bills	14	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	14	7
San Francisco 49ers	16	11
New York Giants	17	5
Minnesota Vikings	18	21
Chicago Bears	19	8
Tennessee Titans	20	20
Arizona Cardinals	21	27
Pittsburgh Steelers	22	19
Atlanta Falcons	23	28
Philadelphia Eagles	24	26
Cincinnati Bengals	25	22
Green Bay Packers	26	25
Dallas Cowboys	27	24
Seattle Seahawks	28	29
Carolina Panthers	29	30
St. Louis Rams	30	31
New York Jets	31	23
Denver Broncos	32	32

The Ravens and Saints are terrible by both measures. However, the Dolphins, Chargers, and Redskins look far worse when looking at their median points allowed. The Giants also look far better when we judge by the median, thus dwindling the impact of last week’s horrendous performance vs. Drew Brees. Jacksonville and Chicago also grade out far more favorably when looking at median.

Running Backs

Team	Median	Average
Miami Dolphins	1	10
Detroit Lions	2	3
San Diego Chargers	2	1
San Francisco 49ers	4	4
Cleveland Browns	5	2
New York Giants	6	12
Indianapolis Colts	7	6
New Orleans Saints	8	11
Dallas Cowboys	9	7
Green Bay Packers	10	14
Buffalo Bills	11	16
Cincinnati Bengals	12	15
Washington Redskins	13	22
Houston Texans	14	8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	21
Baltimore Ravens	16	17
Denver Broncos	17	19
Arizona Cardinals	18	27
Chicago Bears	19	20
Atlanta Falcons	20	5
St. Louis Rams	21	23
New England Patriots	22	25
Tennessee Titans	23	26
Oakland Raiders	24	18
Kansas City Chiefs	25	24
Carolina Panthers	26	13
Philadelphia Eagles	27	29
Pittsburgh Steelers	28	30
Jacksonville Jaguars	29	9
Minnesota Vikings	29	28
Seattle Seahawks	31	31
New York Jets	32	32

The Dolphins have had some fair weeks stopping the run, but they’ve been the most consistently poor team based on their weekly median. The Giants also grade out far worse according to the median. Of course, it’s clear by both measures that Detroit, San Diego, San Francisco, and Cleveland are terrible at stopping runners.

Wide Receivers

Team	Median	Average
Baltimore Ravens	1	2
Detroit Lions	2	14
New England Patriots	3	6
Kansas City Chiefs	4	1
Indianapolis Colts	5	8
Cleveland Browns	6	15
San Francisco 49ers	7	3
Tennessee Titans	8	20
Philadelphia Eagles	9	7
Washington Redskins	10	11
Miami Dolphins	11	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12	4
Buffalo Bills	13	9
Jacksonville Jaguars	14	16
New York Jets	15	17
New York Giants	16	13
Houston Texans	17	19
Arizona Cardinals	18	22
Oakland Raiders	19	21
New Orleans Saints	20	5
San Diego Chargers	21	26
Pittsburgh Steelers	22	18
Chicago Bears	23	10
Cincinnati Bengals	24	23
Minnesota Vikings	25	25
Green Bay Packers	26	24
Carolina Panthers	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	28	27
St. Louis Rams	29	29
Atlanta Falcons	30	30
Denver Broncos	31	31
Seattle Seahawks	32	32

The Lions have been terrible this season at 1-7, and their median vs. wideouts also shows some of their defensive isseus. The Browns and Titans have also been far worse vs. wideouts when looking at the median points allowed. The Ravens and Chiefs have been especially bad, while the Patriots have also seen big totals against them as opponents play from behind.

Tight End

Team	Median	Average
Oakland Raiders	1	1
Green Bay Packers	2	10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	7
New York Giants	4	2
Miami Dolphins	5	14
Indianapolis Colts	6	11
San Diego Chargers	7	12
Minnesota Vikings	8	9
Detroit Lions	9	8
Seattle Seahawks	10	4
Atlanta Falcons	11	5
Carolina Panthers	12	20
San Francisco 49ers	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	14	3
Washington Redskins	15	26
Denver Broncos	16	22
Jacksonville Jaguars	16	17
New Orleans Saints	18	6
Dallas Cowboys	19	21
Philadelphia Eagles	20	31
Houston Texans	21	18
New England Patriots	21	27
Cincinnati Bengals	23	23
Tennessee Titans	23	13
St. Louis Rams	25	25
New York Jets	26	24
Buffalo Bills	27	15
Chicago Bears	28	28
Arizona Cardinals	29	30
Kansas City Chiefs	30	32
Cleveland Browns	31	19
Baltimore Ravens	32	29

The tight end points allowed totals are typically lower than other positions, so we’re also seeing larger discrepancies between the median and average points allowed. The Raiders and Giants have been terrible by both measures, but the rest of the top 10s are disheveled.

My Week 9 Strategy

My strategy this week is to avoid players who will get injured. In all seriousness, I’m going for a bit more of an upside week with my “safe” strategy of the last couple weeks not going so well.

To review my normal strategy:

Start with Vegas over/under linesEvaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each positionEvaluate salaries and contest format

The highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

Team	Vegas-Implied Points
New England	33.0
New Orleans	27.8
San Diego	26.5
Pittsburgh	26.0
NY Giants	26.0

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

Team	Vegas-Implied Points
Jacksonville	17.2
San Francisco	18.8
Washington	19.0
St. Louis	19.0
Indianapolis	20.0

The Result: My Lineup for Week 9

Here’s my lineup for Week 9:

Big Ben wasn’t a great fantasy producer in his return from a knee injury last week, but the Steelers did show a willingness to throw the ball. Roethlisberger threw the ball 45 times, and could air it out this week after the Steelers lost Le’Veon Bell for the season. Oakland has the sixth worst median and average points allowed vs. QBs.Jeremy Langford will be a popular player starting for the Bears vs. arguably the NFL’s worst rush defense. San Diego has the second worst median and worst average defense vs. running backs. Langford’s talent at the NFL level remains to be seen, but he’ll be worked in heavily with an offense that’s been centered around Matt Forte. Forte is out with a knee injury. Devonta Freeman remains the top points scorer at the position, and will be facing a 49ers team already looking toward 2016. The 49ers have the fourth worst median and average fantasy points allowed vs. running backs.Antonio Brown is a solid stack with Roethlisberger, scoring double-digit points in every game Roethlisberger has started this season. Eric Decker could be in for more targets with Brandon Marshall’s questionable status. Decker has been a safe play, scoring double-digit points in every game he’s played this season. Malcom Floyd becomes Philip Rivers’ No. 1 wide receiver target after Keenan Allen was lost for the season. Floyd can be feast or famine as a big Red Zone target, but he’s managed double-digit points in two of his last three games.New England has done a nice job stopping tight ends this season, but the Redskins have to throw to someone. Jordan Reed returned from a concussion to score 24.7 points last week, and had double-digit points in the three previous full games he played this season. He’s also caught at least five balls in every game played thus far.Rounding out my lineup is Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell at the minimum price, with seven field goals in the last three weeks. He’s a risk because of coach Mike Tomlin’s aggressive play, but the Steelers still rank tied for fourth in Vegas-implied points in Week 9. The Falcons defense makes sense against a 49ers “offense” that’s starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, and has the second lowest Vegas-implied points.

That’s my lineup for Week 9. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest!

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