Let’s take a look at our top picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2: Dolphins vs. Patriots.
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Sunday Night Football Best Bets: Dolphins vs. Patriots
It can’t be overstated how good the Dolphins offense looked in Week 1, with Tua having nearly a record-setting performance throwing for 466 yards to a seemingly always open Tyreek Hill, who reeled in 11 balls for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. That being said, those numbers came against a Chargers defense that was decisively well below average in 2022, as the Chargers ranked 25th in expected points allowed and 3rd to last in yards allowed per play. On the defensive side of the ball, the Dolphins were gashed for 233 rushing yards, allowing 5.8 yards per attempt. That doesn’t necessarily bode well for a defense that actually surrendered more points than the aforementioned Chargers and ranked 21st in expected points last year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots played the defending Super Bowl runner-up very well, only losing by 5 points in a game where they would have covered if not for a holding call on a Mac Jones scramble on a 2PT conversion attempt. One of the Eagles scores also came on a weather assisted 70 yard pick-six, which ultimately resulted in the Eagles grading out as the second luckiest team to win in Week 1. Speaking of Mac, he quietly had a very solid day against arguably the league’s best defense in 2022, tossing for 316 yards and 3 TDs to a cast of WRs that is pretty sub-par.
I love the Patriots to bounce back in this spot against a Miami team that’s getting a lot of love for lighting up a bad defense in the opening week. The matchups are outstanding for both Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot, who could both have huge days against this Dolphins defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed last week. Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle will be a problem for any defense, but I trust Bill Belichick and this Patriots defense, that did not surrender more than 21 points to the Dolphins in either of last year’s matchups, to keep them in check. Belichick is 12-9 ATS in his career as a home dog, and I think he adds to that total with a cover tonight. If you want to wait for more public money to roll in on the Dolphins (56% of the bets are on the Dolphins right now), the number might get back up to +3, but I’m perfectly comfortable taking the +2.5.
Pick: New England +2.5 (+100 Bet365)
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