Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 5 + College Week 6

Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 5 + College Week 6

October 7, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

There were some big upsets last weekend, and we had two of the biggest ones (Rams over Cardinals and Florida over Ole Miss) highlighted in our upset watch post last week.

Now we turn our gaze to NFL Week 5 / college football Week 6.

Upset Tracking Scoreboard

Games highlighted so far: 6Upsets the public expected: 0.38Upsets we expected: 2Upsets that happened: 2

(Note: All expectation numbers listed above are based on the numbers we publish in our upset watch blog posts.)

Last week played out pretty much exactly as we expected, with 2 of the 6 underdogs we highlighted pulling out victories that seemed impossible to a lot of people. Only 3 out of every 100 people in Yahoo’s NFL pick’em contest had the Rams over the Cardinals, even though we gave them about a 3 in 10 chance to win.

Florida over Ole Miss, of course, sent shockwaves through the college football landscape, and the magnitude of the win was a surprise to us as well. Still, after a Ole Miss’s shaky performance at home against Vanderbilt, the public was clearly underestimating Florida’s chances to win the game.

About Our Upset Watch Column

Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight a series of games that generally meet two criteria:

The underdog is being almost criminally underrated by the general public, based on public picking estimates from our Football Pick’em Picks productThe teams playing are generally of high interest to lots of fans (mainly applies to college football)

What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (i.e. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a few of the following teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not according to us.

Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/7, and may have changed since then.

NFL Upset Watch: Week 5 Games

Detroit (home) over Arizona

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Detroit	vs. Arizona	ARI by 2.5	43.7%	17.0%

Sitting at 0-4, it’s not surprising that the public would be hesitant to pick Detroit. However, the Lions have faced one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, with three road games in their first four contests. They lost by only three points at Seattle last week, a place that has been almost impossible to win in recent years. Meanwhile, Arizona lost to St. Louis in Week 4, and the Cardinals’ wins have come against teams with a combined record of 3-9.

Arizona at Detroit Matchup

Washington (away) over Atlanta

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Washington	at Atlanta	ATL by 7.5	25.4%	2.0%

The public perception of Atlanta is skewed by a 4-0 record and huge 48-21 win vs. Houston last week. However, the Falcons had two very close calls vs. Philadelphia and the NY Giants earlier in the season. Washington has won two of their last three games, including beating Philadelphia as the underdog last week.

Washington at Atlanta Matchup

Cleveland (away) over Baltimore

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Cleveland	at Baltimore	BAL by 6.5	30.9%	7.0%

Coming off a dramatic win in Pittsburgh and returning home with a few extra days of rest following a Thursday night game, Baltimore is getting the confidence of the public. The perception that Cleveland is a bad team is likely an accurate one, but with the exception of an opening loss to the Jets they’ve been competitive in every other game, including against the Chargers on the road last week. Meanwhile, a thin Ravens receiving corps will be even thinner on Sunday without Steve Smith Sr.

Cleveland at Baltimore Matchup

Oakland (home) over Denver

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Oakland	vs. Denver	DEN by 4.5	32.9%	10.0%

The Raiders have been changing perceptions that a win against them should be taken for granted, starting the year off 2-2 and coming within a last second Robbie Gould field goal of 3-1 last week. Still, that’s not enough to convince 90% of the public in Oakland’s home matchup vs. 4-0 Denver. The Broncos have won three of their games by one touchdown or less, and their early offensive output hasn’t come near what we saw the last three seasons with Peyton Manning.

Denver at Oakland Matchup

College Football Upset Watch: Week 6 Games

Kansas State (home) over TCU

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Kansas State	vs. TCU	TCU by 9.0	23.8%	0.0%

This game stands out with almost no one taking a chance on the Wildcats, according to Yahoo!’s published numbers. TCU’s offense has shown plenty of firepower, but they also showed a leaky defense vs. SMU and Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs won close calls on the road vs. Texas Tech (by three) and Minnesota (by six), while Kansas State lost by only two points to Oklahoma State on the road last week. Kansas State has long odds, but a far better chance than the public is giving them.

Tennessee (home) over Georgia

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Tennessee	vs. Georgia	UGA by 4.0	41.7%	10.0%

The public is quick to forgive Georgia for their Week 5 implosion vs. Alabama, especially against a 3-loss Tennessee team. However, two of Tennessee’s three losses have come vs. very highly ranked teams in our ratings (No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 18 Florida), and the combined margin of those three losses was 12 points. The Vols have more than a fighting chance vs. Georgia.

Georgia at Tennessee Matchup

Missouri (home) vs. Florida

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Missouri	vs. Florida	FLA by 5.0	34.4%	8.0%

These two SEC East foes have more in common than some realize, as defensive teams whose offenses appear to be improving. Florida made an 11-spot jump in our rankings after beating Ole Miss by 28 on Saturday, but Missouri has also risen after turning over their offense to freshman quarterback Drew Lock. The teams have one common opponent thus far, with Florida winning at Kentucky 14-9 and Mizzou losing at Kentucky 21-13. With a Vegas total set at 39.5, it’s likely to be a low scoring affair.

Florida at Missouri Matchup

Georgia Tech (away) over Clemson

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
GA Tech	at Clemson	CLEM by 7.0	28.1%	3.0%

Similar to Tennessee, Georgia Tech is being slighted as a 3-loss team, and those three losses have come in their last three games. However, Clemson has shown some chinks in its armor, barely edging Notre Dame last week and beating Louisville by only three points the week before. Clemson has also had issues with the Georgia Tech triple option offense in recent years, allowing at least 28 points in these teams’ last four head-to-head matchups.

Georgia Tech at Clemson Matchup

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