The Dolphins won an exciting shootout in Week 1, and the Patriots pushed the Eagles but fell short. They’ll close Sunday’s action in an AFC East battle. Instead of picking sides or totals for this contest’s SGP, it’s comprised of a trio of correlated player props.
- More NFL Betting Advice
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Expert NFL Game Picks
- NFL Betting Strategy
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dolphins vs. Patriots SGP
-
- Leg 1: Tyreek Hill 70+ Receiving Yards (-180)
- Leg 2: Rhamondre Stevenson 45+ Rushing Yards (-175)
- Leg 3: Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Passing Yards (-155)
Tua Tagovailoa’s and Tyreek Hill’s overs are directly correlated. However, they also might need the Patriots to keep it close to exceed their lines. And if New England’s competitive, Rhamondre Stevenson will likely be busy on the ground against a defense that was steamrolled by running backs last week.
Starting with Miami’s duo, Tagovailoa and Hill have thrived in Mike McDaniel’s offense and made sweet music together. Tagovailoa has played at least 70% of Miami’s offensive snaps 13 times since last year. In those games, he’s excelled, and Hill has smashed. Tagovailoa averaged 300.3 passing yards per game in the 13-game sample. He also exceeded 250 passing yards in 10 of those contests, with a median of 295. Tagovailoa also passed for 270 yards against the Patriots in his only healthy meeting against them last season.
Meanwhile, in the same sample of games, Hill averaged 112.5 receiving yards per game, reached at least 70 receiving yards 10 times and had a median of 94. Coincidentally, Hill’s median was against the Patriots last year.
The Dolphins have an explosive offense but could not put much distance between themselves and the Chargers last week because their defense was a tire fire. The Patriots had an encouraging first game this year with Bill O’Brien in the saddle as the offensive coordinator. O’Brien wisely featured Stevenson. The explosive running back had a 73% snap share in the opener and handled 12 of 19 rushing attempts by New England’s running backs.
Still, the Patriots understandably didn’t run Stevenson into the ground against Philadelphia’s stout front. They’ll likely put more on his plate in a cushy matchup this week. Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley ripped the Dolphins for 208 rushing yards on 32 carries in Week 1. Stevenson can make the most of this matchup.
Finally, the projections at FantasyPros are favorable for all three legs of this SGP, projecting Hill for 96.6 receiving yards, Tagovailoa for 276.7 passing yards and Stevenson for 62.3 rushing yards.
Parlay Odds: +220
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
