Week 4 NFL Survivor Pick Strategy: Chargers, Packers, Jaguars, Patriots, Rams

Week 4 NFL Survivor Pick Strategy: Chargers, Packers, Jaguars, Patriots, Rams

September 26, 2018 – by Tom Federico

In this post, we’ll analyze the pros and cons of NFL Week 4’s five most popular survivor picks: the Chargers, Packers, Jaguars, Patriots and Rams. We’ll also recap the impact of last week’s absolutely crushing results on NFL survivor pools.

Although the Chargers are the most favored team in Week 4 (as of Wednesday afternoon), keep in mind that the safest team isn’t always your best option. To maximize your edge in survivor pools, you need to consider two other critical strategy factors: pick popularity and its future value.

For a more detailed explanation, see our blog post on winning survivor pool strategy.

Want expert Week 4 picks for your NFL Survivor Pool? Last season, TeamRankings subscribers reported over $1 million in NFL survivor pool prize winnings, and our pick recommendations have out-survived the public in every week so far this year. Check out our NFL Survivor Picks product.

Last Week’s Survivor Pick Recap

What a bloodbath Week 3 was, thanks to the Buffalo Bills pulling off the biggest NFL upset since 1995 (in terms of the game’s closing point spread) and knocking out the nearly 60% of still-alive survivor entries that were on the Vikings. Add in upset losses by the Jaguars (the second most popular pick), Patriots, Texans and several others, and in total nearly 80% of still-alive survivor entries were eliminated last week.

That means less than 10% off the public’s survivor entries from the beginning of the season are still alive entering Week 4. If you played six or fewer survivor pool entries this year, the baseline expectation is that all of your entries have now been eliminated. Ouch.

TeamRankings Survivor Pick Performance

Though several of our recommended picks for Week 3 lost, on average, pick recommendations from our customized NFL survivor advice notched their third straight week of out-surviving the public. It was almost an epic week for TeamRankings subscribers, but alas, it wasn’t quite meant to be.

Our biggest strategic bet for Week 3 was to advise the vast majority of our subscribers to avoid picking the Vikings, primarily on account of the huge edge you could gain if they lost, given Minnesota’s extremely high pick popularity. It was admittedly a longshot gamble, but some decent non-Vikings alternative picks existed. The Vikings had 59% pick popularity nationally, but only 6% of our subscriber pick recommendations were on Minnesota.

The Bills then proceeded to smash Minnesota by 21 points, putting our subscriber base as a whole in a hugely advantageous position.

Unfortunately, the upsets weren’t over for the day, and two of our most frequently recommended picks (namely the Jaguars and Texans) also proceeded to lose. At the same time, we had a decent number of subscriber pick recommendations on the Eagles, Bears, and Rams, all of which won.

In the end, 35% of TeamRankings survivor pick recommendations survived Week 3, compared to 22% of the public’s picks. So proportionally our Week 3 pick survival rate was 59% better than the public.

Week 4 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis

Now let’s get to some Week 4 survivor pick analysis. Hopefully you’re either still alive, buying back into a pool, or entering a fresh new pool that starts this week.

As usual, we’ll focus on the five most popular picks of the week, since you’re probably considering at least one or two of them, and review some of the pros and cons of each.

IMPORTANT: The teams highlighted below are the five most popular public picks this week. This is NOT a list of our top recommended picks for your pool. In fact, we often recommend avoiding extremely popular teams, which can increase your expected winnings. If you want to see our recommended picks for your pool(s), you can subscribe to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks and get customized pick advice for each of your survivor entries.

Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday afternoon, and could change between posting time and kickoff time; our survivor picks product update multiple times per day with the latest information. Also, we estimate survivor pick popularity based on picking trends data from popular nationwide survivor pool hosting sites.

1. LA Chargers (vs. San Francisco): 34% popularity

Despite losing to the crosstown rival LA Rams last week, the Chargers are the most popular pick in survivor pools for Week 4. The big news here is that San Francisco lost starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the season to an ACL injury in Week 3. Replacement C.J. Beathard is a significant step down, making the Chargers even greater favorites in this game (10.5 points) than they otherwise would have been. Although the Chargers are the safest pick this week according to the betting markets, picking them comes with several significant downsides. 34% pick popularity is quite high given that LAC isn’t that much safer than other options this week, and the Chargers also have a solid amount of future value. Week 5 against Oakland and Weeks 11 and 12 (which are definitely worth planning for if you’re still competing against hundreds of entries) could be good spots to use the Chargers later.

2. Green Bay Packers (vs. Buffalo): 21% popularity

Based on Vegas odds, Green Bay is the second safest pick this week, favored by 10 points over Buffalo. While Green Bay’s win odds look comparable to the Chargers’ win odds (in fact, our models are relatively high on the Packers compared to Vegas), Green Bay is a significantly less popular pick. Consequently, picking Green Bay has a bonus in terms of going against the Chargers herd, even though you’re still picking the second most popular team. Green Bay does have a little bit of future value, but not a ton compared to the Chargers or New England. Week 6 against San Francisco could be a good spot to use the Packers if you don’t want to (or can’t) use Minnesota or Houston then, but after that, you may need to wait until Week 13 for a good spot. Especially after Week 3 dealt its crushing blow, smaller pools may be over by then.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New York Jets): 21% popularity

Despite last week’s upset loss to Tennessee, Jacksonville is still a very popular survivor pick choice this week, with 21% of public picks on the Jaguars. Currently, the Jags are favored by 7.5 (the third largest spread of the week), and there are some similarities between their profile this week and Green Bay’s. Jacksonville is slightly less of a favorite than Green Bay, but also has slightly less future value. Other than Week 7 against Houston when Jacksonville may be one of several teams worth consideration, the Jaguars likely won’t be one of the bigger favorites of the week until Week 12 or 13, and both those weeks also look to have several other options.

4. New England Patriots (vs. Miami): 5% popularity

After the three most popular teams of Week 4, there’s a big drop-off in pick popularity down to the fourth most popular pick, New England. Part of the reason is that the Patriots aren’t favored by as much, although the 7-point spread for New England is only a half point worse than that of the Jaguars). Another factor may be that some survivor players have Patriots jitters after New England’s shaky 1-2 start. However, even players that have faith in New England should be cognizant of their still-high future value. Next week, home against the Colts could be a spot where the Pats are the safest play available, while Weeks 8 and 9 against the Bills and Packers are both weeks when it would be advantageous to have New England as an option.

5. Los Angeles Rams (vs. Minnesota): 4% popularity

After three weeks, the Rams are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 22 points, and they hold the #1 spot in our NFL predictive rankings by a pretty wide margin. Not surprisingly, the Rams have substantial future value. In addition, close to 40% of survivor entries have already used LAR this year, after their 36% pick popularity in Week 2. While choosing the Rams this week has the advantage of being an unpopular pick, the downside is that you’ll lose the flexibility to use the Rams in multiple near-term weeks where they likely will have high win odds paired with not exorbitant popularity. Our models project LAR as having nearly 70% win odds in Week 5 against Seattle and Week 6 against Denver, and then the Rams get even more favorable matchups after that, such as Week 7 against the 49ers, Week 8 against Green Bay, and Week 10 against the Seahawks.

Which Team Should You Pick In Survivor Week 4?

The five teams above are the most popular picks this week, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 4 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool. Every possible pick has an expected value associated with it, and it takes a lot of data and math to p out which pick will maximize your expected profits from your survivor pool(s).

Why? Because factors like the size of your pool and its specific rules can make a big impact on your optimal Week 4 pick strategy. For example, the more entries your pool has, the more aggressive your picks need to be. In very large pools, you know going in that you’ll probably need to survive all 17 weeks to have any shot at prize money, so if there’s a very good option to pick a mediocre team early on, you should take it. In smaller pools, you should play it safer.

Similarly, if you’re in a “strike pool” that allows you to take one loss without being eliminated, then you don’t need to be quite as conservative with your picks, compared to playing in a traditional “one loss and you’re out” pool. Need to start making two picks per week later in the season? Then you’d better put a higher priority on saving better teams for later use, starting right at the beginning of the season.

The list of strategy implications goes on…

Get Our Week 4 Survivor Pick Recommendation

We built our Survivor Picks tools to do all of this analytical work for you. You answer a few questions about your survivor pool’s size and rules, and we provide customized pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.

The product even does a second layer of optimization if you are playing multiple survivor entries, recommending exactly how you should split a “portfolio” of survivor pool entries across one, two, or more teams. (Our product optimizes picks for up to 30 unique entries.)

The result? Last year, our subscribers reported winning over $1 million in survivor pool prize money, and their share of winnings from survivor pools they entered was more than four times as much as expected.

Survivor pools are incredibly risky games, and it’s never easy to win. Even with the edge our advice gives you, in most years you won’t take home the prize. But in the long term, our subscribers are winning football pools much more often than their opponents, and that performance typically translates into fantastic financial returns.

You can find more information about our premium NFL products at the following pages: NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

 

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